Statistically Analyzing the Pocono 400
After hitting the high-banked Dover International Speedway, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has arrived to an unorthodox track. The Pocono Raceway, home of the “Tricky Triangle,” is hosting the 33rd annual Pocono 400, and the 73rd race in the track’s history.
In this weekend’s version of statistically analyzing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series field, we will give you a look at a bit of history of the results which drivers have recorded.
-Jamie McMurray: After controversially having damage due to the concrete breaking apart at Dover, McMurray is looking to have a cleaner race this weekend at Pocono. Though McMurray has never finished better than ninth at Pocono, he has been consistently inside the top-20 at the two-mile triangle.
-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off of a runner-up finish at Dover, and is now eighth in the points standings. However, he is utilizing a chassis that has yet to run on the track. After winning at Pocono in 2011, it has been all or nothing for the Michigan native. He has two top-six finishes since then, but also has two finishes outside of the top-15.
-Austin Dillon: Dillon is the most experienced of rookie drivers at Pocono. He has a pair of top-10 finishes at Pocono in two Camping World Truck Series events, but did not lead a single lap in either of those races. After running inside of the top-10 at the season-opener in Daytona, he has yet to crack the top-10 since. However, he has nine top-20s since the Daytona 500 and is solidly 15th in points.
-Kevin Harvick: Harvick has never won at Pocono in 26 starts and has led just five laps after completing over 4,500 laps over the course of his career at Pocono. He was arguably the only driver that could contend with Jimmie Johnson for the win at Dover, but ended up having to make an unscheduled pit stop and was on a pit cycle which was different from the leaders. Harvick has nine top-10s at Pocono, but it is safe to say that he will be a contender this weekend.
-Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been underperforming this year compared to his teammates at Hendrick Motorsports. After winning at Pocono in August of last season, Kahne should feel fairly confident this weekend. The No. 5 team is utilizing the chassis which they used to finish third with at Kansas. Although he has been successful at Pocono in the past, Kahne has an average finish of 17th as he has been involved in multiple wrecks at the track.
-Michael Annett: Annett, like most of the rookie drivers, has never run a race at Pocono. Coming off of what would have been a solid run at Dover had he not experienced trouble to put him over20 laps down, Annett could have a decent race at Pocono.
-Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose compares Pocono to a road course since drivers have to attack each corner differently from one another. In a year where he has just two top-fives, each at short tracks, Ambrose needs a solid run at a larger track. He has six top-20 finishes at Pocono in 10 races, but also has two top-10s.
-Danica Patrick: This could be opportunity weekend for Patrick. However, she is using a car that has been nothing better than mediocre this weekend, and she struggled mightily at Pocono in 2013. If she could have a clean race, Patrick should be able to run inside of the top-25 this weekend.
-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin won his first pair of races in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono back in 2006. He has two more wins at Pocono, but has yet to win at Pocono since the track was resurfaced. Hamlin has led 11 of the 16 races he has started at Pocono, but did not lead a single lap in either event at Pocono in 2013. Besides winning at Talladega, he has been inconsistent this year, especially on the larger tracks.
-Casey Mears: Mears has had a solid year after Germain Racing created an alliance with Richard Childress Racing. Pocono has been one of his better tracks in the past, and finished inside of the top-25 in both races last year. Currently, he sits 24th in points with six top-15s after 13 races into the 2014 season.
-Tony Stewart: Stewart is coming off of his best race of the year at Dover. He ran inside the top-10 through all 400 miles, and was going to be a contender for the win had the caution not come out late in the race and he was able to save enough fuel. He won his first race as an owner-driver at Pocono in 2009, and has run very well since the repave. In 30 starts at Pocono, Stewart has 22 top-10s with an average finish of 11th.
-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has been solid at Pocono in each of the last four races at the track. He has seven top-10s in 16 starts at Dover, but has not contended for a win at the track since 2010. Bowyer enters Pocono 17th in points, but is coming off of one of his better races this year at Dover.
-Greg Biffle: With speculation growing that he might stay at Roush-Fenway Racing, Biffle has finished outside of the top-15 in three straight races. With RFR’s inconsistency this year, Biffle needs a solid run. He finished runner-up during this race last year, but has been inconsistent at the larger tracks this season. With a win at Pocono in 2010, Biffle is looking to regain his momentum as he is now 16th in points.
-Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse Jr. struggled in both Pocono races in his rookie year – finishing 26th and 24th, respectively. He has dropped to 26th in points after eight finishes of 22nd or worse this season.
-Kyle Busch: Along with Hamlin, Busch has just been missing a little something on the larger tracks which has prevented him from going to victory lane. He has never won at Pocono, and it is one of his worst tracks with an average finish of 17.8 in 18 starts. Currently, Busch sits seventh in points, even after getting wrecked by Bowyer last weekend at Dover. He has seven top-10s at Pocono, and is looking for his third straight finish of eighth or better at the Tricky Triangle.
-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has started off races slow this year, but begins to contend for the win after the halfway mark, just like his days at Roush-Fenway Racing. Coming off of back-to-back third-place finishes, Kenseth has momentum on his side. Pocono was one of the few tracks which Kenseth struggled at in 2013, and has done so for the majority of his career. In 28 races at Pocono, Kenseth has just 10 top-10s with a best finish of third in 2003 – his championship season.
-Joey Logano: With two wins this year, Logano can test out different setups as he is all but secure in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. He has led laps in all but three races this season, but has had three finishes of 32nd or worse. Logano edged out Mark Martin for the win at Pocono in 2012. Since then, he has raced solidly inside of the top-13 in each of the last three Pocono races. Currently, the Team Penske driver sits sixth in points and is looking to have the best season of his young career.
-Alex Bowman:Bowman has a pair of third place finishes at Pocono in two ARCA Series starts back in 2012. He struggled mightily at Dover – getting into the wall three times, and is looking to have a solid day.
-Jeff Gordon: Gordon lost the points lead to Kenseth after Dover, but has a win which should make him feel more secure entering the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The No. 24 car has been fast at each race this year, and he might just be able to capture another victory this weekend at Pocono. He is using the same chassis that he used to win at Kansas, and has had his fair share of success at the two-mile track. Gordon has six wins and 29 top-10s in 42 starts at Pocono, and if he leads 28 or more laps on Sunday, he will surpass the one thousand laps led mark at Pocono.
-Cole Whitt: After making the switch to BK Racing from Swan Racing, Whitt has run inside of the top-30 for the past four races. Though he has not run great, he has outrun his teammates and has shown improvement from the events he ran with Swan.
-Paul Menard: Menard has seven top-10 finishes already this year. He is using the chassis which he used at Darlington, and is looking to capture his second top-five of the season. Menard has two top-10 finishes at Pocono in 14 starts at the track, but finished 30th or worse in both Pocono races last year.
-Ryan Newman: Since making the move over to Richard Childress Racing, Newman has been running inside of the top-20 for the most part. However, he has not been contending for wins. That may change at Pocono as he participated in the test on May 27, and he is racing the car which he ran at Las Vegas and Texas. Newman has an average finish of 11.7 at Pocono in 24 starts, and is looking for his fourth straight top-six finish.
-Alex Kennedy: Kennedy is making his season debut for Circle Sport Racing in the No. 33 Chevrolet. He will also race the two road course events over the summer months. He made three starts for Humphrey-Smith Motorsports last year (including Pocono).
-David Ragan: Ragan and the entire Front Row Motorsports team have struggled getting adjusted to the new aero package this year. However, Ragan finished 21st in one of the two Pocono races last year, and is expected to run inside the top-30 if he does not experience any mechanical issues.
-Reed Sorenson: Soreneson’s best career finish at Pocono was 20th in 2009 with Richard Petty Motorsports. Coming off of one of his best races this year at Dover, Sorenson will welcome a new sponsor to the No. 36 Chevrolet this weekend with Theme Park Connection coming aboard for Tommy Baldwin Racing.
-David Gilliland: Gilliland has experienced trouble over the past four races, and is looking just to finish a race. His best Pocono finish with Front Row Motorsports was a 21st-place finish in 2012.
-Kurt Busch: Busch will be using a brand new chassis this weekend. After finishing 18th at Dover, Busch is 28th in points, but is rather secure in the top-30. However, he has just two top-10s this year, and has been extremely inconsistent. Busch has a pair of wins at Pocono in 25 starts, and also has 14 top-10s at the track including a third-place finish at Pocono in August last year.
-Kyle Larson: Larson has never raced at Pocono, so he will be doing the “double” by racing the ARCA Series event on Saturday. He has run well at the high speed tracks this year, and has finished inside of the top-20 all but two times this season.
-Aric Almirola: Almirola has consistently run around the top-20 at Pocono over the last three races. His No. 43 car has run inside of the top-13 over the past four races, and has momentum on his side.
-A.J. Allmendinger: The alliance with RCR has begun to pay dividends for JTG Daugherty Racing. He has three top-10s this year, but has struggled at Pocono as of late. Allmendinger’s average finish at Pocono in 12 starts is worse than 24th, and had a pair of 33rd-place finishes in both Pocono races last year.
-Jimmie Johnson: Coming off of back-to-back wins, Johnson is looking for his third win of 2014. After running very well at both races at Pocono last season, including a win in this event, Johnson is poised to return to victory lane once again. He has three career wins at Pocono with an average finish better than ninth in 24 starts.
-Justin Allgaier: Allgaier won at Pocono in the ARCA Series back in 2008, and has four top-10s in six prior Pocono starts. He is starting to pick up momentum with Steve Addington as he has five top-25 finishes this year.
-Brian Vickers: Vickers has been running well in his return to full-time racing in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. He has five top-10s this year, and currently sits 13th in points. This will be the first time Vickers will race at Pocono since 2011, but he completed the test in late May which should help him get readjusted to Pocono. In 14 prior starts at Pocono, Vickers’ best finish was second in 2008 with Red Bull Racing, and in 2005 with Hendrick Motorsports as it has been one of his better tracks. However, he has not raced on the new surface.
-Timmy Hill: Hill will be running the No. 66 Toyota at Pocono as Joe Nemechek will be racing at Texas in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has five top-10s at Pocono in 16 starts, and nearly won at Pocono in 2012. This year, however, Truex has struggled with Furniture Row Racing. He had his best run of the year at Dover with a sixth-place finish, and is looking to take that momentum to Pocono.
-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt Jr. has six top-10s this year, and has run well at the larger tracks. His average finish this year is approximately 12th after 13 events, but is still looking for a win on a non-restrictor plate track. Earnhardt Jr. finished in the top-five in both Pocono races last year, and is utilizing the same chassis he raced with at the Auto Club Speedway earlier this year.
-Carl Edwards: Edwards has been inconsistent this year, but when he runs well – he races inside of the top-five. When he runs poorly – Edwards struggles to stay inside of the top-20. He’ll be racing with a new chassis this weekend, and is looking for his third win at Pocono in what will be his 19th start at the track. Edwards has eight top-10s at Pocono, and is looking to capture his first win since 2008 at Pocono.
43 cars are entered in the race, so no drivers will miss the event.
Joseph Wolkin (@JosephNASCAR) is a sophomore at the Queensborough Community College as an English major. He’s a native of Whitestone, NY, just outside of New York City, and has been attempting to find roots of motorsports within his area since 2004. He started out as just a fan, but over the course of his high school career, he ended up falling in love with writing.
Joseph has been covering NASCAR since 2011 for several different websites. Recently, he was named as one of two lead NASCAR columnists for Rant Sports after working for the site for over one year. Working with Rant Sports for approximately 14 months, Joseph has covered New York City area sports teams such as the New York Giants, New York Mets, New York Rangers, New York Islanders and more.
Through his passion is for NASCAR, Joseph has adapted to changing times and realizes that he has numerous opportunities in the journalism work. As one of the top young sports writers, his goal is to become one of the top motorsports writers of this new digital media era. However, he also believes that it’s important to stick to the traditional routers of print publications after seeing his high school newspaper dissolve due to a lack of funding.
Currently, besides his duties with Speedway Digest, Joseph is a columnist with Fronstretch.com, Motorsport.com and has a weekly article in NASCAR Pole Position's digital version - ROAR! Weekly Race Preview Magazine.
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