Entering Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, Bubba Wallace considers himself in a win-or-bust situation—until he isn’t.
Wallace is 16th in the standings, 32 points ahead of 17th-place Ty Gibbs, approaching the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale (7 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
That’s a relatively secure position as far as the final Playoff spot is concerned—unless a winless driver not named Brad Keselowski or Kevin Harvick happens to take the checkered flag and knock Wallace out of the postseason.
Last year’s cutoff race at Daytona was a perfect example. Austin Dillon dodged a 13-car wreck with 22 laps left and stole the final Playoff berth with a victory.
Aware of the possibility of an unexpected winner, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota prefers to approach the event with a singleness of purpose, though he also acknowledges that top-10 performances in the first two stages could help his cause.
“Everyone is in a must-win situation,” Wallace said. “If you’re not locked in, you’re in a must-win situation. The last race is Daytona, and we’ve seen surprise winners.
“No one is safe until the race is over with. We’re hoping we can do everything right, continue to get stage points. And if there’s a new winner, it has to be the 23 car—other than that, everyone is fighting for the same real estate.”
Both of Wallace’s career victories—at Talladega in 2021 and Kansas last year—have come during the Cup Series Playoffs. But in both cases, Wallace had failed to qualify for the postseason.
“For some reason, I like to win in the Playoffs—and that doesn’t matter because (the regular season is) over. But a win is a win, right? They can’t take that away from us, but we’re not a part of it.”
This year, Wallace has two ways to rectify that situation, either by winning Saturday night or qualifying on points.
Realistically, that’s a luxury other Playoff hopefuls don’t have—until it isn’t.
Aric Almirola likes his chances to steal a Playoff berth at Daytona
In 2018, Aric Almirola came within two corners of winning the Daytona 500. Two of Almirola’s three NASCAR Cup Series victories have come at superspeedways—in the summer 2014 race at Daytona and the Playoff race at Talladega in 2018.
Accordingly, it’s not surprising that the driver of the No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford is optimistic about his chances of earning a Playoff spot with a victory in Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
“This place is a place where I’ve had a lot of fast race cars over the years and led a lot of laps,” said Almirola, whose position of 25th in the series standings leaves him in a must-win situation where the Playoffs are concerned.
“This is certainly a place I feel like I can win at… I went back and looked at a lot of film getting ready for this race, and I’ve seen that No. 10 Smithfield Ford Mustang up front in every single one of them.
“You just have to have things go your way. You’ve got to manage all of it—the pit cycle, when to come on and off pit road with your teammates, making sure you do all the little things right…
“I know where Victory Lane’s at. I’ve won the last couple of Duels here (Daytona 500 qualifying races in 2021 and 2023), and we’ve had really, really fast race cars. I think that will still be the same.”
If qualifying is any indication, Almirola’s assessment is accurate. He’ll start on the front row on Saturday after running second to teammate Chase Briscoe in Friday’s Daytona time trials.
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